In essence, this is just another move in which the Braves seem to be taking on some salary commitment from the contract of a now-fringy major leaguer in exchange for a younger, more controllable player. The San Diego Padres, who are in a hurry to reduce payroll, are tonight’s partner. The Braves are taking on, at least partially, the $5.5 million player option that Matt Carpenter exercised earlier in the offseason.
Although Carpenter is the most well-known player in this trade, it’s unclear how much of an impact he will have in the Braves’ long-term plans. Carpenter was a great bat in his rookie season of 2012 and continued to be so until his career collapsed in his mid-30s.
He managed to turn a 150-PA comeback with the Yankees in 2022 into a $12 million guarantee from the Padres before the season ended last year. He will likely find a new job of some kind in 2024 after faceplanting in 2023 to the tune of -0.3 fWAR in 237 PAs.
If you’re searching for bright spots, Carpenter’s.310 xwOBA from the previous season was more average than poor, and he is regarded as a respectable bat moving forward by ZiPS and Steamer. Carpenter’s current status as a DH presents a greater challenge because a league-average bat at DH is not a very strong option. ZiPS believes he’ll hit enough to be a below-average regular rather than just a warm body, but there doesn’t seem to be much upside here. Steamer views him as basically replacement level. One could argue that a team could do worse than having Carpenter around to pinch-hit from the left side once in a while, but the Braves don’t have to pay Carpenter $5.5 million.
Rather, it appears that they obtained Carpenter’s salary—less whatever the Padres trade—in order to sign southpaw reliever Ray Kerr, who made two stints in the major leagues: a brief one in 2022 and a longer one in 2023, during which he recorded 0.1 fWAR in 27 innings over 22 appearances. Kerr has a career ERA of 125, FIP of 109, and xFIP of 90. However, in 2023, his xFIP was 74, which is likely what attracted the Braves to him. You can understand why the Braves were interested in him—he has less than a year left on his contract and one option year remaining.
Kerr has a fastball-curve pitch, but he throws it with a lot of force, more akin to a gyroslider similar to Luke Jackson. It’s clear that the Braves took on salary in order to acquire a pitcher with stuff (in many senses of the word) they like after said curve thing racked up an absurd whiff rate of over 50% the previous season. Kerr’s fastball appears good on paper, but it hasn’t been very effective thus far, most likely because he doesn’t elevate it high enough. Conversely, his curve revolves around z-whiff, providing the Braves with a left-handed version to complement the right-handed version recently re-signed by Pierce Johnson.
