The most recent Next Gen Stats model offers precise projections of each team’s chances of making the playoffs by simulating the rest of the NFL season 10,000 times. The NGS Analytics team will provide the most recent probability-based preview of the playoff picture for the remainder of the regular season.
A few things before we get started:
Unless otherwise noted, all odds are current as of 5:30 p.m. ET on December 13.Unless otherwise indicated below.
Definitions of terms:
If Win: A team’s prospects of qualifying for the postseason in the event that they win their next game.
If Lose: A team’s prospects of qualifying for the postseason in the event that they lose their next game.Playoff leverage is the measure of how a single game affects a team’s chances of making the playoffs. It is computed as the differential between a team’s chances of qualifying for the postseason if they win their next game and if they lose. The importance of a game in terms of playoff qualification is essentially captured by this metric. A game with a high playoff leverage is crucial because it means that the result will have a big impact on the team’s chances of making the playoffs, while a game with a low playoff leverage means that the team’s chances of making the playoffs will be less affected by the result.
