The Cardinals’ previous spending philosophy of not pursuing elite starting pitching talent was proven to be incorrect by the 2023 season, which is why the front office decided to target elite starters this offseason. The Cardinals’ philosophy of not investing in top-tier players may also be misguided, as Bryce Harper is demonstrating to them. They will undoubtedly learn from that error, right? They’ll be involved when another free agent of Harper’s caliber becomes available, right? Okay, no. Shohei Ohtani is the next generational free agent that is comparable to Harper, and the Cardinals have not indicated that they plan to pursue him.
It seems a little false to directly compare Ohtani to Harper. Although Harper’s deal was the biggest ever at the time, Ohtani’s will likely be worth more than $100 million. After all, Bryce Harper isn’t a starting pitcher on par with Cy Young. Jim Bowden of the Athletic claims that Ohtani might get a deal that is extremely similar to Harper’s. Bowden believes Ohtani will sign a $477 million, ten-year contract. Although that appears to be nearly twice as much as Harper’s AAV, there is more to the story when Ohtani’s pitches are taken into account. If Ohtani stays healthy, he will pitch nine out of ten years and be a DH for the entire ten. The AAV would be about $25 million if the $477 million were divided over 19 years, which is less than
Ohtani’s role as a DH will be quite similar to Harper’s because of his limited defensive flexibility and inability to pitch in 2024 due to a torn UCL. Ohtani’s estimated contract was not disclosed by Bowden, but it is likely that he will earn $27 million in the first year and $50 million in each of the following three. Harper’s salary is $26 million for the following year, so the comparison is ideal. Ohtani’s profession.Harper’s and 922 OPS and 148 OPS+ match up remarkably well.143 OPS+ and 912 OPS. Harper had a far lower strikeout rate during his first six seasons in Washington, but Ohtani outslugged Harper by a wide margin and demonstrated an exceptional power-speed combination.
Sure, it’s impossible to compare Ohtani’s success in the Postseason with Harper’s, as Shohei hasn’t appeared in a single Postseason game in Anaheim, but the 2023 World Baseball Classic has shown that Shohei Ohtani shines brightest on the biggest stage. In 7 games, Ohtani hit .435/.606/.739 to a 1.345 OPS. In 3 appearances on the mound, he shone just as brightly, pitching to a 1.86 ERA and 0.72 WHIP while striking out his teammate Mike Trout to secure a third WBC title for Japan. That is a small sample size, but the Classic cemented Ohtani as a true winning player despite not having a single Postseason appearance.
Shohei Ohtani hasn’t played in a single Postseason game in Anaheim, so it’s hard to compare his success to Harper’s, but the 2023 World Baseball Classic has proven that Ohtani is at his best on the biggest stage. Ohtani hit.435/.606/.739 with an OPS of 1.345 in 7 games. He excelled just as much in his three mound appearances, pitching to a 1.86 ERA and 0.72 WHIP while striking out Mike Trout to help Japan win a third World Baseball Classic. Despite not making a single Postseason appearance, Ohtani’s status as a true winning player was solidified by the Classic—albeit with a small sample size.
The Cardinals and John Mozeliak are aware that “pitching, pitching, pitching” is the main focus this offseason, but Mozeliak also stated at the Trade Deadline that the team would not “ignore a position player that is uber great.” Ohtani will be the best hitter available this offseason, and even if the Cardinals choose to pay Ohtani just $27 million next season, they will still have plenty of payroll to spend on pitching if they play their cards right. Not to be forgotten, in 2025, Ohtani the pitcher will make a comeback.
