Major League Baseball’s arbitration process is a capricious one, pitting players with three years of service time under their belts (and the few Super Twos with slightly less) against their own club in a wage war. Teams that, in other situations, would stand by their players and would even go so far as to overhype them in order to maximize their value in a trade, now have to find the most derogatory ways to criticize their performances in the name of payroll while simultaneously actively choosing to keep them on the field.
Because of the structure of the industry, players gain more and more money through system design as they gain experience, eventually enabling them to sign with any team as a free agent. However, one major way that the system is thrown off is when a player’s predicted arbitration raise reaches a point where the team decides not to offer them a contract for the next season before the arbitration dispute even starts since they can’t be retained at that rate.
Players eventually become free agents and can sign with any team because of the way the business is structured, giving them the opportunity to earn more and more money through system design as they gain expertise. But a big way the system gets thrown off is when a player’s expected arbitration rise gets so high that the team chooses, ahead of the arbitration issue even beginning, not to provide them a contract for the upcoming season because they can’t be retained at that rate.
Luis Urias, IF (Red Sox of Boston)
As a member of the Milwaukee Brewers, the versatile Urias was a constant source of frustration for the Reds, hitting the most doubles and home runs in GABP of any MLB ballpark outside of Miller. Over his career, he has hit.264/.352/.473 (.825 OPS) in 105 PA in Cincinnati. Although he struggled in 2023, playing in both Milwaukee and the Boston Red Sox, he still owns a career OPS+ of 97, which was much higher than the 111 OPS+ he recorded in 1042 PA during the 2021 and 2022 seasons.Urias is typically thought of as a plus defender in the infield, and he would fit in well as a utility infielder if Spencer Steer (and his shaky defense) were to be used more often at DH and in the corner OF position. There would be no Joey Votto or Kevin Newman on the infield in this scenario, and Urias would use up a lot of the pinch hits offered to him if the Reds decided not to tender Senzel. Urias has a career and bats right-handed.796 OPS vs. LHP, after all, and if the Red Sox decide his projected $4.7 million salary is too high, he’d likely be signable for somewhat more than simply keeping Senzel ($3 million) and adding a more experienced player.
The Reds are familiar with Joe because they selected him in the Rule 5 Draft from the Los Angeles Dodgers system, and they saw him hit in the NL Central with Pittsburgh in the 2023 season. Joe never really played a day in the Reds organization during the regular season (or any MiLB action), having spent his spring training with the team and hitting well enough to warrant a trade to the San Francisco Giants.After overcoming testicular cancer, he eventually played for a while with the Colorado Rockies before arriving in Pittsburgh where he recently put up an OBP-driven.760 OPS (107 OPS+) in 472 PA with the Pirates. His forte is clearly not defense, but he did have a respectable.820 OPS against LHP last season (and a respectable.786 OPS against southpaws in his big league career). With him, the Reds would have a spot-starter and bench player to balance out their OF, which is primarily composed of lefties in the form ofill Benson, and Jake Fraley. Given David Bell’s tendency to swap positions late in games, the f TJ Friedl, Wact that he could go to first base strengthens his argument. Additionally, at just $2 million (MLBTR estimate) for 2024, he’d be a less expensive option should they
