Determining the true essence of the Dallas Cowboys has been a recurrent issue for 2023. With six games remaining and a week off to think things over, we ought to have a decent notion.
ought should, but don’t.
This club has been a real Jekyll and Hyde, dominating some opponents, losing badly to others, and then, right before their week off, looking more or less like the NFL versus the Los Angeles Chargers. It’s not new to wait to see which Cowboys squad actually shows up, but this season, it’s being tested more than ever.
To qualify for the playoffs, they now have eleven games remaining. With one less loss than the Philadelphia Eagles, their 4-2 record ties them with the Seattle Seahawks for fourth place in the NFC. While they were lounging on their couches at home, the San Francisco 49ers’ shock loss on Monday has suddenly placed Dallas back into the thick of the battle for the conference’s top spot.
We felt going into the season that the NFC was a poor conference, and after seven weeks, that certainly looks to be the case. There are just six teams in the NFC that have a winning record, and the Cowboys are one of them.
504. There are currently nine other franchises with losing records. Dallas has a route not only to a strong seeding in the playoffs but also to the postseason.
The rest of the program is very easy going until December, when is really difficult. The Los Angeles Rams, who have also had some ups and downs this season, will be their first opponent after their bye. If it were played in in&T Stadium, which has been extremely successful for the Cowboys, it might resemble the Chargers game a lot. To be honest, that is a pretty winnable game. It is not worth much this year because it has been the most difficult year to figure anything out in memory.
It appears to be a good matchup. Although the Rams rank 16th in points scored and 14th in points allowed this season, it’s probably fair to say that they don’t appear very formidable on the surface. Nevertheless, the Cowboys must make it clear that they will not be taken lightly in Los Angeles.
The Rams have scored just seven passing TDs this season, but they are moving the ball through the air – Matt Stafford currently ranks fourth in passing yards, and the Rams trail only the Lions for the highest number of 20+ yard completions this season with 31. While it might be easy to assume his diminutive, speedy wideouts (more on them in a bit) are boosting those numbers with short catches and YAC, consider Stafford actually ranks higher among QBs based solely on air yards thrown (third), and leads the league in average completed air yards at 7.4 per, according to Next Gen Stats. Cowboys corners will need to be mindful of his desire to push the ball downfield – but also, his propensity to give opposing defenses an opportunity when attempting to do so.
The defense should have plenty of opportunities for splash plays in this contest. Stafford is tied for eighth in sacks this season, but ranks fourth in sack yards lost, suggesting he’s dropping deeper on a more consistent basis in hopes of hitting on a longer developing play. Not only that, but he is currently among the league leaders in throws classified as “bad” or “poor” (full disclosure here – different websites have different classifications of what constitutes a “bad” or “poor” throw, but Stafford was consistently among the top 3 regardless of the source). Bottom line – sack and takeaway opportunities should be there in bunches, and the ‘Boys need to take advantage in both areas.
The breakout of rookie wideout Puka Nacua – alongside the already formidable Cooper Kupp – is the biggest reason it will be difficult to replicate what the Cowboys defense did to this Rams team a season ago. Kupp was virtually unguardable in their previous matchup – 7-for-125, including a 75-yard TD – and Nacua nearly looks like a carbon copy. If the Cowboys don’t generate pressure on Stafford and force some turnovers, look out. This is a big game for Jourdan Lewis.
It’s a game that must be taken seriously. It still looks like a winnable one to start the team off for the rest of the way, and they really need to get the victory. But almost every week there are multiple surprises. Dallas has been on the wrong end of one of those, the unexpected loss to the Arizona Cardinals. They have also benefited from upsets. Just a couple of weeks ago it was looking like the Eagles and 49ers were going to just roll until they met in the NFC Championship game. But they have lost three of their four combined games played since then.
