Recently, the Kansas City Chiefs have offered high-caliber entertainment, and we’re not only referring to the fans who have attended to their games.
We’ve spent the past week wondering when Carolina Panthers and his Chiefs teammates will begin reliably catching passes from Patrick Mahomes while it seems like the majority of the free world is speculating about whether Taylor Swift will attend this Sunday’s game at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis to catch another glimpse of the rumored new beau
The defending Super Bowl champions, who continue to lead the AFC West and still have the strongest chance of representing the league once more in the Big Game, are far from entering a Code Red situation.
With one very significant exception, Kansas City’s next opponent may identify with it.
The Minnesota Vikings have made mistakes throughout the first four weeks of the season, but unlike the Kansas City Chiefs, they haven’t usually been able to recover from them. The Vikings started the season with three straight losses until defeating the Carolina Panthers 21-13 last week.
Our model predicts that the unfavorable start has given the defending NFC North champions a 32.4% chance of making the playoffs. It’s not insurmountable by any means, but it already gives the Vikings little room for error against their next still-elite opponent.
Only six of the 161 teams that have begun 1-4 have advanced to the postseason since the NFL increased the playoff field from 10 to 12 teams in 1990 (6.8%). The final team to do it, the 2020 Washington Football Team, did it by winning the NFC East that year with an abnormally easy record of 7-9.
The greatest weekly over/under total for this game has been set by sportsbooks at 52.5 points. With a point spread of 3.5, the Chiefs are currently the moneyline favorites. The Vikings have a solid chance to topple the reigning NFL champs because our prediction model rewards underdogs and underdog teams as the best bets.
However, the turnovers have been somewhat of a problem. Of the 34 quarterbacks with at least 50 adjusted attempts this season, Mahomes’ 5.04 pickable pass % places him in the 29th spot. Last week, the Jets’ attempt to rally from a 17-0 first-quarter hole was nearly successful thanks to Mahomes’ two misthrown deep balls that were intercepted.
However, what puzzles me the most is how badly Mahomes has stumbled when he has been blitzed early on. When additional pass rushers are present, Kansas City’s starting quarterback is just 10 of 19 (52.6%) with one interception, resulting in a 67.4 passer rating that is at the bottom of the league.
