By the numbers preview: How No. 3 Michigan, Purdue stack up statistically ahead of Saturday’s game

After a bye week full of headlines about the NCAA’s sign-stealing investigation, the No. 3 Michigan football team gets back to actual football action Saturday night, when it hosts Purdue (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC) in a rematch of last season’s Big Ten Championship game. The Wolverines (5-0 Big Ten, 8-0 overall) are heavily favored in its ninth matchup against an unranked opponent this season.

Ahead of the game, we look at how the two teams rank out of 133 FBS teams in more than 50 statistical categories, and discuss what it means for Saturday’s matchup.

A defensive coordinator at Illinois last fall, Ryan Walters walked into a tough situation at Purdue, with an inexperienced roster that wasn’t recruiting well enough to reload. We will also point out that the Boilermakers’ stats are going to look tougher than they might be, as their non-conference schedule of Fresno State, Syracuse and at Virginia Tech might be as tough as any power-five team’s this fall.

But even with that context, it has been a brutal fall for the reigning Big Ten West champions. Purdue beat the Hokies and Illinois, but is 1-4 in Big Ten play and 2-6 overall, including double-digit losses to Syracuse, Wisconsin, Ohio State and at Nebraska. Pass coverage, running the ball and special teams have been particular trouble points so far.

The Boilermakers’ best defensive trait this season has been their pass-rush. Edge Kydran Jenkins leads qualified Big Ten players with 36 quarterback pressures, and is first in the league in Pro Football Focus’s pass-rushing production. Fellow edge Nic Scourton (23 pressures, five sacks) and interior players like Mo Omonode (third among Big Ten tackles in pass-rushing production) have led Purdue to 150 pressures and 24 sacks on 235 pass attempts. In their last four games, the Boilermakers have generated pressure on 44.1 percent of drop backs.

But in coverage, Purdue has struggled mightily. The Boilermakers are allowing 8.4 yards per target (90th nationally), have allowed 30 pass attempts to go for more than 20 yards (or 12.8 percent of all attempts) and 14 touchdowns compared to six interceptions and 25 pass breakups. With 34 missed tackles in coverage and 15 coverage-related penalties, it has been a rough go of it for Purdue when opponents have been able to get the ball out on time. According to Pro Football Focus, Purdue is 133rd out of 133 FBS teams in coverage grade this season.

In run defense, Scourton leads a front that does a nice ob sealing the edge at times, and Ohio State, Nebraska, Virginia Tech and Fresno State were all held below 4.0 yards per carry to and less than 160 rushing yards. But Syracuse, Wisconsin, Illinois and even Iowa all were productive on the ground against the Boilermakers, keeping them below-average in most run defense statistics. So far this season, Purdue has allowed 13.9 percent of opponent carries to go for at least 10 yards, a stop rate of 44.5 percent and 26.1 percent of carries to go for first downs or touchdowns.

Still, Michigan has a decided advantage on this side of the ball.

If Michigan’s defense and Purdue’s offense show what they have shown all season on Saturday, things could get ugly for the Boilermakers. With Aidan O’Connell, Charlie Jones and Payne Durham all off to the NFL and Jeff Brohm off to Louisville, Purdue’s passing game has taken quite a dip this season. The Boilermakers rank 82nd in completion percentage, 85th in passing yards per game, 119th in yards per attempt and 115th in passer rating this season. Texas transfer Hudson Card has completed more than 78.9 percent of his short-range passes (nine yards downfield or less), but his completion percentage has dropped to 38.6 on passes 10 or more yards downfield, and 17.1 percent on passes 20 yards or more downfield.

At receiver, Deion Burks, TJ Sheffield and Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen have been efficient pass-catchers with solid tackle-breaking ability. But hauling in just 7 of 25 contested catch opportunities this season and averaging just 4.5 yards after the catch per reception, the three have struggled on downfield passes. So far this season, Purdue is 114th nationally in pass plays of 20 yards or more despite ranking 39th in pass attempts.